Tuesday’s March WASDE report was essentially an outright punt with no changes to exports or carryout for either corn or beans. With expectations of slightly lower carryout coming into the report, the market sold off initially but then found end user buying interest to recover towards unchanged. While no changes to the export side on corn remains a little surprising given the still brisk sales pace and climbing shipment pace, USDA once again showed that it wants the market to “prove it” with increased shipment numbers before adjusting higher from already record corn export projections.
Perhaps more surprising than the US side was the minimal changes to South American production as well. Brazilian bean production was increased 1 MMT to a new record 134 MMT, while Argentinian soybean production was decreased just 0.5 MMT despite the late dryness through the growing region over the past 30 days. Corn production was left unchanged for both Brazil at 109 MMT and Argentina at 47.5 MMT as well, with a growing reliance on Brazil’s safhrina corn crop to perform despite the bulk of the crop getting in beyond the optimal seeding dates. With the March report now behind us, the market will now turn to a critical stocks and acreage reports 3 weeks from today to set the table for the 2021 growing season.